As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker) 
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Greenville and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times. 

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear.

This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Stonehaven and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.

Despite the lowest mortgage rates of all-time, home buyers are slowing the pace at which they’re buying homes.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 1 percent in August.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures homes under contract, but not yet sold, nationwide. In this respect, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking housing market indicator; a predictor of future home sales.

It’s one of the few national indices that “looks ahead” to future market conditions. Most housing data, by contrast, describes past events.

On a regional basis, only the South Region showed improvement in August’s Pending Home Sales Index report : 

• Northeast Region: -5.8%
• Midwest Region : -3.7%
• South Region : +2.6%
• West Region : -2.4%

That said, even the value of regional data can be questioned. Like all things in real estate, the number of homes going under contract will vary on the local level.

For example, in the Northeast Region where pending home sales slipped in August, there are close to a dozen states. Some of those states performed better than others, and there is no doubt that cities and towns exist in the region in which pending home sales actually climbed.

As a national/regional report, the Pending Home Sales Index cannot show local market data and, for that reason, it’s somewhat irrelevant to everyday buyers and sellers in Simpsonville. If you’re in the market to buy or sell a home today, it’s your local housing market data that matters to you. 

We watch the Pending Home Sales Index because it paints a broad picture of housing nationwide. To get local market conditions, though, you’ll want to talk with a local real estate professional.

According to a recent report by Zillow, 27% of all homeowners are “underwater” on their mortgage. 

Being “underwater” or upside-down on your mortgage means that you owe more money on your mortgage than your home is worth. 

In some markets the numbers are even uglier.  More than a third of Chicago homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.  In Atlanta over 50% of homeowners are “underwater”.

And those numbers don’t include the homeowners whose current equity is between 0% and 20%.  Many people have purchased homes with a 20% down payment to avoid paying PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) only to have their homes fall in value resulting in their inability to refinance at lower rates without paying PMI.

The surplus of existing inventory on the market, the current foreclosure moratorium, and falling prices are the reasons that home values have decreased across the country.

Some experts say that we are getting closer to the bottom.  Obviously!  The question is, “Just where is the bottom?”

The good news for some homeowners is that the government has extended the HARP program until June 30, 2011.  HARP stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. 

You may qualify for the HARP program if you have a conventional (under $417,000) Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage and are not currently paying PMI.  If that is the case, you may be able to refinance at or close to the historically low mortgage rates now available, without paying PMI, even if you owe 25% more than your home is worth.  If you have two mortgages or an equity line that would have to be included in the refinance you would not qualify.

We can quickly determine whether or not you qualify for the HARP program.  If you have an adjustable rate mortgage or a fixed rate mortgage  with a rate that is higher than the currently available low rates, you should check to see if you qualify for the HARP program.

Posted by Terry Brunner.  Terry is a Senior Loan Officer with Horizon Financial.  Terry can be reached toll free @ (877) 627-9211 x150 or email TBrunner@HorizonFinancial.org.  Visit Horizon’s website at www.horizonfinancial.org

Better-than-expected retail sales and positive job growth buoyed stock markets and sank bonds.

Mortgage rates in South Carolina rose for the 4th time in 5 weeks last week, extending a losing streak which dates back 4 months.

Today, fixed, conforming rates are three-quarters of a percent higher as compared to the market’s low point, November 3, 2010. For a $200,000 home loan, that size rate hike equates to an increase in a monthly mortgage payment of $89 per month.

Mortgage rates are at their highest levels of the year and, this week, they may continue ticking higher.

There isn’t much data set for release this week so markets will take their cues from two major events — one economic and one political.

The major economic event is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the House Budget Committee late-Wednesday. Chairman Bernanke is expected to speak about employment, but will likely touch on other topics of import including economic growth, the U.S. dollar, and the nation’s debt ceiling.

The Fed Chairman’s comments will move mortgage rates in one direction or the other, so locking in advance of his testimony may be prudent. Mortgage rates have more room to rise than to fall, after all.

The second major event is Egypt’s ongoing political strife. By Thursday of last week, Wall Street had shrugged off the region’s crisis and unwound the safe-haven trades that had helped mortgage rates during the week prior.

If instability returns, mortgage rates, once again, will be pressured lower.

Regardless of your rate-locking plan for this week, it’s important to recognize that, although rates have risen, they’re still well below historical average. Therefore, rates may have a lot of room to move higher, still.

If you’re shopping for a mortgage, or are now under contract, consider locking your rate as soon as possible.

Last week marks the first time this year that mortgage rates fell on a week-over-week basis, and considering why rates fell, it points to the fragile nature of the global economy.

By all accounts, last week showed that the U.S. economy is in recovery.

1. Housing data rises to its best levels in 8 months (LA Times)
2. Consumer sentiment hit a 7-month high (NPR)
3. Business investment increased 1.4% in December

Furthermore, the Federal Open Market Committee met last week and said that the economy continues to expand (although the pace is slower-than-optimal).

Normally, positive news like this would drive mortgage rates higher, and during the early part of the week, it did. But then, as political problems in Egypt grew larger, international investors began to shift money from their risky assets into the relative safety of the U.S. bond market.

This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course. The buyer influx pushed up prices and, because bond yields move opposite price, mortgage rates dropped.

The week ended with rates at their lowest levels of the week.

Next week, though, rates could reverse. There’s two developing stories rate shoppers should watch.

The first is related to Egypt. In addition to buying mortgage-backed bonds, investors are gambling that oil prices will rise, too. Egypt is the world’s 21st largest oil producer and a disruption of its supply could send gas prices soaring. This circumstance would be inflationary and inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds.

Crude oil jumped 4.3% Friday afternoon. If that continues, mortgage rates should start rising.

The second is tied to jobs. Last month’s jobs data was weaker-than-expected on Wall Street and it sparked a mini-rally in mortgage rates to start the year. Jobs are paramount to economic recovery so if this month’s figures are lower than the consensus figure of 150,000, expect mortgage rates in Greenville to fall.  If the number is stronger than 150,000, expect mortgage rates to rise.

The jobs report is released Friday at 8:30 AM ET.

Posted by Terry Brunner.  Terry is a Senior Loan Officer with Horizon  Financial.  Terry can be reached toll free @ (877) 627-9211 x150 or   email TBrunner@HorizonFinancial.org.  Visit Horizon’s website at www.horizonfinancial.org

God Bless Our Troops And Veterans!

Posted by Terry Brunner.  Terry is a Senior Loan Officer with Horizon Financial.  Terry can be reached toll free @ (877) 627-9211 x150 or email TBrunner@HorizonFinancial.org.  Visit Horizon’s website at www.horizonfinancial.org

The stock and bond markets of Wall Street are driven by unemotional numbers like profits, P/E ratios, return on investment, etc.  But they are also driven by emotions.

A New York broker once said, “Downtown, there are two emotions: Fear and Greed.  The rest is bull*$x&.”

Greed as in the late 1990’s when investors jumped to buy any stock that ended with a “.com”.  Of course that bubble exploded in 2000.

Fear as in the last week when the debt problems of Greece and Portugal and maybe Spain caught the attention of the investment community.  Will these problems spread to France and Germany?  Will the debt crisis affect the United States?  Are Europe’s biggest banks facing insurmountable strains?  Will the crisis have a negative impact on China’s exports to Europe?  What are the implications for the LIBOR?

The anxiety in the investment community has led both institutional and retail investors to flee the stock market and shift their funds to gold, bonds and money markets.

When money is poured into bonds the price of bonds goes up.  As the price of bonds goes up the yield or interest rate on those bonds goes down.  As a result mortgage rates have fallen dramatically.  The 15 year fixed rate is at its all time low.  And the 30 year fixed rate is close to its all time low.

If you have an adjustable rate mortgage or can benefit by refinancing, this may just be the time to pull the trigger.

Posted by Terry Brunner.  Terry is a Senior Loan Officer with Horizon Financial.  Terry can be reached toll free @ (877) 627-9211 x150 or email TBrunner@HorizonFinancial.org.  Visit Horizon’s website at www.horizonfinancial.org

The Dead Cat Bounce is a Wall Street term that refers to a brief recovery in the price of a declining stock, bond, security or market. The term is derived from the concept that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”. This phenomenon may apply to the mortgage bond market in the near future.

First of all, remember that when bond prices go up, rates go down. When bond prices fall, rates go up.

In the latter half of 2008, 30 year rates moved in a range from 5.875% to 6.5%. 15 year rates moved in a range from 5.75% to 6.125%. That is until November 25th, 2008. On that day the U.S. Federal Reserve Board announced that it would initiate a program to purchase mortgage backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, artificially propping up the prices of bonds and keeping interest rates low. The very next day rates on a 30 year fixed went down to 5.125% and ensuingly headed further south.

Over the last year and four months, the massive purchases (1.25 trillion dollars worth) of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve have kept mortgage bond prices up and interest rates down. The 30 year rate has fluctuated between 4.5% and 5.25%, while the 15 year rate has moved in a range from 4.25% to 4.875%.

Now the bad news. The Federal Reserve has officially stopped buying mortgage backed securities as of March 31st, 2010. Mortgage rates have started to move up. While there may be some short term volatility, some experts expect rates to rise by 1% this year.

If you need to get out of an adjustable rate loan, or would benefit by refinancing, this may be your last chance to do so at a great rate.

And lets hope for the “Dead Cat Bounce” or bounces. Because this cat is officially DEAD!

Posted by Terry Brunner. Terry is a Senior Loan Officer with Horizon
Financial. Terry can be reached toll free @ (877) 627-9211 x150 or
email TBrunner@HorizonFinancial.org. Visit Horizon’s website at www.horizonfinancial.org